As the national economy slows, the South Australian economy has continued to perform well, with unemployment reaching the lowest level in five decades. For the first time in its 14-year history, CommSec’s State of the States report ranked South Australia as the number one performing economy in the nation – twice in a row.

The state’s population has grown strongly (by 1.7 per cent in the year to September quarter 2023), particularly due to a strong recovery in  net overseas migration and the return of international students. The labour market has performed even more strongly, as illustrated by the chart below.

The pace of growth (in South Australia and nationally) has slowed, following rising interest rates, higher inflation, and capacity constraints. Inflation has moderated but remains above target rates. Following two strong years of growth (3.4 per cent in 2022-23 and estimated growth of 2 per cent in 2023-24), employment growth is forecast to slow to ½ per cent in 2024-25 returning to long-term growth of 1 per cent per annum in 2026-27.

Employment Growth has Outpaced Population Growth

A line graph showing employment growth compared to population growth, where the x-axis shows quarters (three month intervals) starting with February 2020 and ending with February 2024, and the y-axis is an index going from 97 to 112, with 100 representing the level as of March 2020. The graph has three lines, one for full-time employment, one for total employment, and one for population (aged 15 and over). In February 2020 all three lines begin at about the same point, 100, then population continues to rise gradually up to 106 in February 2024. Total employment and full time employment dip down under 100, then between February 2021 and May 2021, and then increase rapidly, going past the population line between August 2021 and November 2021. They level off towards the end, total employment finishing just above 109 and full time employment at about 112, both well above population at 106.

Key Economic Indicators Underlying the Budget and Forward Estimates - South Australia

  2023-24 Estimate 2024-25 Forecast 2025-26 Projection 2026-27 Projection 2027-28 Projection
Gross State Product  - real growth (%) 2 2
State Final Demand - real growth (%) 2 2
Employment - growth (%) 2 ½ ¾ 1 1
CPI (%)