As the national economy slows, the South Australian economy has continued to perform well, with unemployment reaching the lowest level in five decades. For the first time in its 14-year history, CommSec’s State of the States report ranked South Australia as the number one performing economy in the nation – twice in a row.
The state’s population has grown strongly (by 1.7 per cent in the year to September quarter 2023), particularly due to a strong recovery in net overseas migration and the return of international students. The labour market has performed even more strongly, as illustrated by the chart below.
The pace of growth (in South Australia and nationally) has slowed, following rising interest rates, higher inflation, and capacity constraints. Inflation has moderated but remains above target rates. Following two strong years of growth (3.4 per cent in 2022-23 and estimated growth of 2 per cent in 2023-24), employment growth is forecast to slow to ½ per cent in 2024-25 returning to long-term growth of 1 per cent per annum in 2026-27.
Employment Growth has Outpaced Population Growth
Key Economic Indicators Underlying the Budget and Forward Estimates - South Australia
2023-24 Estimate | 2024-25 Forecast | 2025-26 Projection | 2026-27 Projection | 2027-28 Projection | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross State Product - real growth (%) | 1¼ | 1½ | 1¾ | 2 | 2 |
State Final Demand - real growth (%) | 1¾ | 1½ | 1¾ | 2 | 2 |
Employment - growth (%) | 2 | ½ | ¾ | 1 | 1 |
CPI (%) | 4¾ | 3½ | 2¾ | 2½ | 2½ |